The storm is over?– After more than six very complicated months on the financial markets, risky assets are trying to reverse the trend. the Bitcoin decided to bounce off the support at $19,000 and again tackles the resistance. For its part, the euro is trying to recover from the purge experienced in recent months by maintaining the parity against the dollar. Could the dollar finally slow down in order to let risky assets express themselves? Let’s look at this right away in point MacroHebdo !
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Bitcoin touches resistance again, this time, is it okay?
In recent weeks, sellers seem asleep and buyers should take advantage of it. For now, the dynamic is still bearish and Bitcoin blocks on the resistance as well as on the upper limit of the Bollinger bands :
Bitcoin attempts an exit from the interval between $19,000 and $21,800. Currently, the dynamic remains bearish both daily and weekly. Buyers need to push to confirm the dynamic change closing above $22,500.
If the buyers manage to break out of the range, the bearish trendline will probably resistance at about $24,000. Another resistor is at $28,000. Let’s be vigilant, because you absolutely must not re-enter the range. The buyers need to hold the price above the resistance, otherwise the Bitcoin could find itself at the bottom of the range again at $19,000 even below as described last week.
the momentum is bullish and show signs encouraging breaking the bearish trendline. It is no longer fragile, all the lights are green for a continuation of the bounce.
Risk off: the dollar index on resistance, gold is struggling
Gold continues to fall
Since March 2022, gold has lost 18%. However, gold retains its interval Between $1,970 and $1,690 :
Gold is one of safe haven assets. In this complicated period, we could legitimately think that having gold makes it possible to limit damage. In reality, it’s a little more complex. Indeed, the dollar is so strong that gold struggles to performeven under favorable conditions.
On a weekly basis, gold is in bearish momentum since the break of $1,790 in early July. However, gold can recover from the bottom of the range at around $1,690. The price rebounded several times on this level and the bullish trendline should also support. The momentum is bearish and show that sellers have had their hands on this asset for a few weeks.
Gold had a chance to rally at the start of the year, but sellers were close to all-time highs. The rebound remains probable at the bottom of the range, but the support has already been touched several times. The more a support is touched, the more likely it is to give way.
The dollar could slow
After more than a year of rising, could the dollar finally slow down? The euro/dollar parity seems defended by buyers. After a fall of 19% of the euro against the dollar since the beginning of 2022, the euro could well recover in value.
As long as the dollar is strongrisky assets like Bitcoin will struggle to perform. However, the dollar could stall at the resistance :
Since May 2021, the dollar has regained strength and continues to climb. The dollar index is currently at the level of the resistance. He could lose strength. The weekly wick shows that the sellers are showing at these levels. However, you also need a dynamic change to be able to think that the rise of this asset is over. Currently, both scenarios on the chart are possible. If the euro defends itself, the dollar may finally slow down.
The momentum shows a potential bearish divergencethe RSI will need to close below 62 for it to be confirmed.
Risky assets close to confirming a change in trend
While the dollar is in contact with a resistancerisky assets like the S&P 500 and NASDAQ are also at the resistance level. Risky assets need to confirm to avoid a new wave of decline on the stairs.
S&P 500 still below resistance at $3,900:
The dynamic is bearish on this asset on a daily and weekly basis. The momentum could change if the buyers manage to get the S&P 500 to close above $3,945. The course is again in contact with the resistance and close to bearish trendline. This is the third time the resistance has been tested, it is necessary for the level to break down and the S&P 500 to rejoin the level at $4,200.
If the buyers fail, the S&P 500 should join the bracket at $3,500. The momentum is always bearisha clear break of the bearish trendline is needed. For the moment, the trendline is resisting and the course hangs below $3,900.
Coinbase has found its 2022 low?
The action Coinbase has been in free fall since the beginning of 2022. After so much decline, the action may be entitled to a little respite :
Coinbase seems to be developing a bracket about $45. To register a change in momentum, the action must close above $84. The course could soon meet the bearish trendlinewe will have to break this trendline to find some buying force.
If the stock continues to rebound and manages to close above $84the next resistance is at the level of first stop (0.382 Fibonacci retracement) to $104. The momentum is very encouraging, as the RSI has broken the downward trendline present since the end of November. On the RSI, all the lights are green to attempt a bounce. The development of the price will depend on the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ.
NASDAQ close to breaking resistance at $12,200
The NASDAQ price looks like the S&P 500:
NASDAQ price is trending bearishbut that could change by closing above $12,200. We see it, the price stops at the resistance level. If the resistance is broken, the NASDAQ could quickly find itself at the level of the next resistance at $12,800.
Resistance looks close to giving way, but the bulls will have to push a little further. Be careful, if the resistance holds, a new bearish wave could be coming.
Momentum is encouraging and the bearish trendline may be giving way. A bullish divergence could also form if the RSI closes above 54. All of this suggests that the resistance might break, but it has yet to be confirmed.
Bitcoin seems to want to bounce back after several months of decline. Bitcoin is still in a downtrend, buyers need to regain control by closing the price above $22,500. The dollar could slow down and this could allow risky assets to express themselves during the summer. It remains strong and that, as long as the momentum remains bullish. US equities may have bottomed out, but resistances need to break. Risky assets are still trending down, but they are starting to show encouraging signs. All eyes remain on the dollar and the euro!
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